Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Medal of Freedom Ceremony for Charlie Kirk?
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 63%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| College / Campus | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Faith | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Young People | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 73%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 70%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 68%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 65%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hostage | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 32%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP