Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 21, 2025
Kalshi What Will Trump say During The Charlie Kirk Memorial?
Polymarket What will Trump say at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?
Markets
40 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest country | Yes | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 20+ times | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Youth | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 45%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| College / Campus | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Debate | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charlie / Kirk 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical left 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrible / Horrible 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Assassinated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Horrific | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unite | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Faith | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heaven | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 34%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God | Yes | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Death penalty | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 5+ times | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful wife / Wonderful wife | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | 37%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Roof | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Butler | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 5%n=122 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP