Donald Trump: Keynote, Jan 21, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during WEF Address on January 21?
Markets
23 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | 61%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Wife | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Globalist / Global | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Depreciation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear / Iran 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Expert / Genius | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of Mine | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 45%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Denmark / Norway | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 20%n=236 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordability | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age of America | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resolve / Hammer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Intel / Nvidia | No | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Khamenei | No | 38%n=59 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wef-address-on-january-21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP