Pete Hegseth: Speech, May 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lethal | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP