Will Pete Hegseth say “Oil”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Oil” at 4 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (29%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

34%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=oil

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Oil

Probability
34% · n=14
Settled
4/14 (29%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 15 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 29, 2026OilKalshiNo
May 12, 2026OilKalshiNo
May 5, 2026OilKalshiNo
Apr 29, 2026OilKalshiYes
Apr 24, 2026OilKalshiNo
Apr 16, 2026OilKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026OilKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026OilKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026OilKalshiNo
Mar 19, 2026OilKalshiNo
Mar 13, 2026OilKalshiNo
Mar 10, 2026OilKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026OilKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026OilKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026OilKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Oil”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Oil” at 4 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (29%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Oil” next time?
34%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP