Pete Hegseth: Press briefing, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing?
Markets
17 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | No | 71%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 68%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Civilian / School | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CIA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP