Will Pete Hegseth say “Midnight Hammer”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Midnight Hammer” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
Midnight Hammer
- Probability
- 30% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Midnight Hammer |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “Midnight Hammer”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Midnight Hammer” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Midnight Hammer” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Midnight Hammer’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/midnight-hammer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=midnight%20hammer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP