Will Pete Hegseth say “America First”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “America First” at 8 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

45%from settlement history only · n=16counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=america%20first

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

America First

Probability
45% · n=16
Settled
8/16 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 17 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Jul 21, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
May 29, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
May 12, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
May 5, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Apr 24, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Apr 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026America FirstKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
Mar 13, 2026America FirstKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Mar 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026America FirstKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026America FirstKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “America First”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “America First” at 8 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “America First” next time?
45%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘America First’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/america-first (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=america%20first · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP