Pete Hegseth: Press briefing, May 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 70%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 59%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 57%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Civilian | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Lethal | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Phelan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Uranium | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 18%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP