Pete Hegseth: Press briefing, Apr 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing?
Polymarket What will Hegseth say during press conference on April 8?
Markets
30 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ally | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God is Good | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Little | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Objective | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Cyber | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Asset | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Game | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leak / Leaker | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal / Lethality | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SCIF | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| This President | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uniform | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Civilian / School | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 27%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| CIA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 23%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP