Pete Hegseth: Hearing, Jul 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request?
Markets
15 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 73%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | Yes | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | Yes | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 66%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 66%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26JUL21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP