Will Pete Hegseth say “Hamas / Hezbollah”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Hamas / Hezbollah” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
Hamas / Hezbollah
- Probability
- 34% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “Hamas / Hezbollah”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Hamas / Hezbollah” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Hamas / Hezbollah” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Hamas / Hezbollah’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/hama-or-hezbollah (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=hama%20%2F%20hezbollah · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP