Will Pete Hegseth say “Hormuz”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Hormuz” at 8 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (57%), most recently on May 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

49%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=hormuz

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Hormuz

Probability
49% · n=14
Settled
8/14 (57%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 15 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo
May 12, 2026HormuzKalshiNo
May 5, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Apr 24, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Apr 16, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026HormuzKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026HormuzKalshiNo
Mar 13, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026HormuzKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026HormuzKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026HormuzKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026HormuzKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Hormuz” at 8 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (57%), most recently on May 5, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Hormuz” next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP