Will Pete Hegseth say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “China / Chinese” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 29, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 56% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| May 29, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “China / Chinese” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 29, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP