Will Pete Hegseth say “Russia”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Russia” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
36%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
Russia
- Probability
- 36% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “Russia”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Russia” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Russia” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Russia’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/russia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=russia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP