Will Pete Hegseth say “Nuclear”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Nuclear” at 14 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (88%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

64%from settlement history only · n=16counts: named speaker only
Last 10
9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=nuclear

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Nuclear

Probability
64% · n=16
Settled
14/16 (88%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 17 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026NuclearKalshiNo
Jul 21, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Jun 14, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
May 29, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
May 12, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026NuclearKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Mar 6, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Dec 7, 2025NuclearKalshiYes
Nov 8, 2025NuclearKalshiNo
Jun 22, 2025NuclearKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Nuclear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Nuclear” at 14 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (88%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Nuclear” next time?
64%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP