Will Pete Hegseth say “Israel / Israeli”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Israel / Israeli” at 13 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (81%), most recently on Jun 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

56%from settlement history only · n=16counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Israel / Israeli

Probability
56% · n=16
Settled
13/16 (81%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 18 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 21, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jun 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
May 12, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
May 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Apr 24, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Apr 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026Israeli / IsraelPolymarketYes
Apr 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 6, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Israel / Israeli” at 13 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (81%), most recently on Jun 14, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
56%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP