Pete Hegseth: Press briefing, Apr 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing?
Markets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | 62%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Civilian | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Phelan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uranium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 20%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP