Will Pete Hegseth say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at 1 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (8%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

22%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=ayatollah%20%2F%20khamenei

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Ayatollah / Khamenei

Probability
22% · n=12
Settled
1/12 (8%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
May 5, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Apr 24, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Apr 16, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Apr 7, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Mar 13, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Mar 10, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Mar 9, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026Ayatollah / KhameneiKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at 1 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (8%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Ayatollah / Khamenei” next time?
22%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Ayatollah / Khamenei’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/ayatollah-or-khamenei (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=ayatollah%20%2F%20khamenei · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP