Will Pete Hegseth say “Democrat”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Democrat” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (11%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

26%from settlement history only · n=9counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 8 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=democrat

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Democrat

Probability
26% · n=9
Settled
1/9 (11%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 10 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Apr 16, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Apr 7, 2026DemocratKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 19, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 13, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 10, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 9, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026DemocratKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Democrat” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (11%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Democrat” next time?
26%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP