Will Pete Hegseth say “Drone”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Drone” at 11 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (61%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.

50%from settlement history only · n=18counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=drone

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Pete Hegseth

Drone

Probability
50% · n=18
Settled
11/18 (61%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled no

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? · settled yes

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What will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 19 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 13, 2026DroneKalshiNo
Jul 21, 2026DroneKalshiYes
May 29, 2026DroneKalshiNo
May 12, 2026DroneKalshiNo
May 5, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Apr 24, 2026DroneKalshiNo
Apr 16, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026DroneKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Mar 31, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Mar 13, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026DroneKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026DroneKalshiYes
Dec 7, 2025DroneKalshiNo
Nov 8, 2025DroneKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Pete Hegseth say “Drone”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Drone” at 11 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (61%), most recently on Jul 21, 2026.
What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Drone” next time?
50%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Drone’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/drone (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=drone · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP