Pete Hegseth: Hearing, Apr 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing?
Markets
20 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 69%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 54%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lethal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace through Strength | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP