Pete Hegseth: Episode, Sep 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes?
Markets
13 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | No | 73%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 71%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 64%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 61%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 57%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| F-15 / F-15E | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| CIA | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26SEP13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP