Will Pete Hegseth say “CIA”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth did not say “CIA” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
26%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
CIA
- Probability
- 26% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “CIA”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Pete Hegseth did not say “CIA” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “CIA” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘CIA’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/cia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=cia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP