Will Pete Hegseth say “Civilian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Civilian” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (71%), most recently on May 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
55%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Pete Hegseth
Civilian
- Probability
- 55% · n=7
- Settled
- 5/7 (71%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Pete Hegseth yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Pete Hegseth say “Civilian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Pete Hegseth said “Civilian” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (71%), most recently on May 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Pete Hegseth says “Civilian” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: ‘Civilian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth/words/civilian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=pete-hegseth&word=civilian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=pete-hegseth&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP