Pete Hegseth: Episode, Jun 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation?
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 69%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 66%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 32%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 28%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26JUN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP