Will Donald Trump say “White House”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “White House” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
White House
- Probability
- 43% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…me? I come home, get in the building, get in the gorgeous White House that's now fully renovated and beautiful again. Beautiful. And we had…
…do, like most people would do. And I walk outside of the White House and we have this massive scrum of breast. They're going crazy…
…here. You know, I was showing him I was showing him the White House. I was taking him for a tour. That's 1792. 1792. The…
…foreign fraudsters and basically scum. Today, I'm pleased to welcome to the White House somebody that I've been hearing about, met quickly, but I tell…
This is now a proper entrance for the White House. It's great, including what we've done. We've totally rebuilt the façade, which is largely falling…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | White House |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | White House |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | White House | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | White House | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “White House”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “White House” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “White House” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘White House’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/white-house (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=white%20house · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP