Will Donald Trump say “Arizona”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Arizona” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 3, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Arizona
- Probability
- 39% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you if you were in the Texas border, if you were in Arizona, if you were in New America, what a good name. You know,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Arizona”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Arizona” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Arizona” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Arizona’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/arizona (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=arizona · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP