Will Donald Trump say “Syria”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Syria” at 5 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 4, 2025 (45%), most recently on Dec 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Syria
- Probability
- 34% · n=11
- Settled
- 5/11 (45%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Syria |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Syria | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Syria | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Syria |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Syria | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Syria | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Syria | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Syria | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 16, 2025 | Syria | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Syria | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Syria | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Syria”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Syria” at 5 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 4, 2025 (45%), most recently on Dec 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Syria” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Syria’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/syria (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=syria · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP