Will Donald Trump say “Minnesota”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Minnesota” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Minnesota
- Probability
- 44% · n=6
- Settled
- 4/6 (67%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I love this land. God bless the USA. From the lakes of Minnesota to the hills of Tennessee, across the plains of Texas, from sea…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you could do that here. I know you could do it in Minnesota. I didn't know you could do that here. We better get that…
…severe. When you see some of the things that we're finding in Minnesota and California, we have crooked politicians running the places, it really gets…
…community -- the lovely community from Somalia, lovely country -- in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was stealing billions and billions of dollars, taxpayer money, through fraudulent childcare…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Minnesota |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Minnesota | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Minnesota | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Minnesota | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Minnesota | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Minnesota | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Minnesota”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Minnesota” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Minnesota” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Minnesota’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/minnesota (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=minnesota · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP