# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-08-02 (settled) · 32 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:25:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-02 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-07-27..2026-07-31 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after July 27th, 2026 at 8:00am ET and before Aug 3, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 10 of 15 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:11Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-31 of 32 by p · more: offset=31 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	102	74	0.73	YnnYnYnYYn	8	0	0.84	6	6	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	134	86	0.64	YYYnYYYYnn	8	0	0.8	1	2	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	39	27	0.69	YnYYnYYnnn	8	0	0.75	3	4	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	188	102	0.54	nYnYYnnYnY	8	3	0.73	11	11	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	47	31	0.66	YYYYYYnYYY	8	0	0.7	0	0	no		1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	40	29	0.72	YnYYYYnYYY	8	0	0.69	1	1	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	95	37	0.39	YYnYYYYYYY	8	1	0.69	4	5	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	35	23	0.66	nYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.66	2	2	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	59	26	0.44	YnYYnYnYYn	8	2	0.66	7	12	yes	1	
Melania	melania	68	42	0.62	nYnnYnnYYY	8	0	0.65	0	0	yes		1
Moon	moon	21	9	0.43	nnYYYYnnnn	8	0	0.61	0	0	no		1
Newscum	newscum	71	42	0.59	YYnnnnYYnY	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
Fraud	fraud	63	26	0.41	YYYYYnnnnY	8	1	0.59	7	13	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	17	8	0.47	YYnnYnYnnn	8	1	0.57	1	1	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	79	42	0.53	nnYnYnYnnY	8	2	0.56	5	8	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	54	32	0.59	YYYnYnnnnn	8	1	0.54	3	4	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.54	5	5	yes	1	
TikTok	tiktok	58	15	0.26	nYnnnnYYYY	8	0	0.53	0	9	yes		1
Windmill	windmill	59	29	0.49	nnnnYYYYYn	8	1	0.52	2	2	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	35	15	0.43	YnYnnYnnnY	8	0	0.5	1	2	yes	1	
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	25	9	0.36	nnnnnnnnnY	8	0	0.44	0	0	no		1
American Flag Blue	american flag blue	12	3	0.25	YnnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.4	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	17	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	0	1	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	24	6	0.25	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.36	1	7	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	456	49	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.36	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	21	4	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.25	2	2	yes	1	
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	18	3	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.24	0	0	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	23	5	0.22	nnnnnnnnYY	8	0	0.23	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	14	1	0.07	nYnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.21	0	0	no		1
Golden Dome	golden dome	47	8	0.17	nnnnnYYYnn	8	0	0.2	0	0	no		1
Uranium	uranium	36	3	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.2	0	0	no		1