Will Donald Trump say “Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (43%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator
- Probability
- 42% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (43%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/paid-agitator-or-professional-agitator (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=paid%20agitator%20%2F%20professional%20agitator · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP