Will Donald Trump say “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating
- Probability
- 49% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of citizenship because they want to cheat.
…two Dan Sullivans. How about that? That's not so dumb. Actually, it's cheating like hell, but it's not the dumbest thing in the world. And…
…We have a lot of crazy things. That's why they're great at cheating. They cheat like hell. And if they didn't cheat, they could never…
…great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of citizenship. Oh, sir, may I please see…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated / Cheating | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheating / Cheater |  Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cheat / Cheated / Cheater / Cheating’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cheat-or-cheated-or-cheater-or-cheating (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cheat%20%2F%20cheated%20%2F%20cheater%20%2F%20cheating · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP