# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-04-21 · 41 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR21 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-cnbc-squawk-box-appearance-on-april-21 · as_of 2026-10-25T08:15:19Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of CNBC: Squawk Box , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-cnbc-squawk-box-appearance-on-april-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance.
# rows 1-31 of 41 by p · more: offset=31 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	228	158	0.69	YnYYnYnYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	121	82	0.68	YYnnnYnYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	K	27	19	0.7	YnYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.66	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	129	84	0.65	nYYnnnYYYY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	25	17	0.68	YYYnYYYYnY	1	1	0.64	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	66	35	0.53	nnYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.62	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	81	49	0.6	nnYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	60	33	0.55	nnnYYYYYYn	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	K	88	60	0.68	YnnnYnYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	1	P	24	16	0.67	YYYnYYYYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Soleimani	soleimani	1	KP	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Tax	tax	1	K	15	12	0.8	YnYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	21	13	0.62	nnYYnYYYYn	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	KP	89	49	0.55	nnnYnnYnYY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	12	8	0.67	YYnYYYnYYn	1	0	0.49	hist	yes
Eight Wars / Eighth War	eight war|eighth war	1	P	9	6	0.67	YYYYYnnnY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	K	32	12	0.38	YnYYYnnYYn	1	0	0.49	hist	yes
Cheat / Cheated / Cheating / Cheater	cheat|cheated|cheater|cheating	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.49	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	K	158	103	0.65	YYnYYnnnYY	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Kevin / Warsh	kevin|warsh	1	K	4	2	0.5	nnYY	1	0	0.47	hist	yes
Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterated|obliteration	1	P	13	7	0.54	YnYnnYYnYY	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Roaring / Like a rock	like a rock|roaring	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.45	hist	no
Gulf of America / Gulf of Trump	gulf of america|gulf of trump	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Steve / Witkoff	steve|witkoff	1	P	6	3	0.5	YnYnnY	1	0	0.43	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	KP	201	106	0.53	YYnYnnYYYY	1	1	0.42	hist	yes
Through the roof	through the roof	1	P	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Khamenei / Khomeini	khamenei|khomeini	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.41	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	127	50	0.39	nnnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Blockade	blockade	1	KP	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.4	hist	yes
Powell / Too Late	powell|too late	1	K	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.38	hist	yes
Peace	peace	1	K	34	19	0.56	nYnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.31	hist	no