Will Donald Trump say “Tax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tax” at 13 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (72%), most recently on May 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tax
- Probability
- 36% · n=18
- Settled
- 13/18 (72%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Republican Congress, I signed the great big beautiful bill delivering the largest tax cuts in American history. I did it in my first term also,…
…be. It's our capital. It should be right. I signed the largest tax cuts in American history with the great big beautiful bill including no…
…really am on the ballot because we did so many things. Greatest tax cuts, the strongest border we've ever had, all these things. And it…
…not why he did it. But to Americans across the country, your tax dollars are being stolen, and your tax dollars are being stolen from…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…regulation and obstacle to doing business in America. We passed the largest tax cuts in American history, and as a result, more money is being…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Tax |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Tax |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tax”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tax” at 13 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (72%), most recently on May 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tax” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP