# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-09-23 · 47 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP23 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-address-to-un-general-assembly-on-sept-23 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:04:34Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-09-23 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP23 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Trump Address the United Nations General Assembly, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-address-to-un-general-assembly-on-sept-23 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
# rows 1-39 of 47 by p · more: offset=39 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	55	45	0.82	YYYYYnYYYY	0.73	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	31	25	0.81	YYYnnYYnYY	0.64	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	10	8	0.8	YYYYnYnYYY	0.62	hist	no
Putin	putin	1	K	33	25	0.76	nYnYYYYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	30	20	0.67	YnYnnYYYYn	0.59	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	28	18	0.64	YnYnYYnYnY	0.55	hist	yes
President Xi	president xi	1	K	9	6	0.67	YYYYYnnnY	0.54	hist	no
Seven Wars	seven war	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
King	king	1	P	5	3	0.6	nYYnY	0.53	hist	no
Golden Age	golden age	1	K	5	4	0.8	YnYYY	0.52	hist	yes
China 3+ times	china#3	3	P	11	8	0.73	nYYYnYnYYY	0.52	hist	yes
Europe / European	europe|european	1	K	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.52	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	P	9	5	0.56	YYnYYYnnn	0.52	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	K	16	11	0.69	YYYnnYYnYn	0.51	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	K	19	10	0.53	YnnYnYYYnY	0.51	hist	yes
Free Speech	free speech	1	K	2	1	0.5	nY	0.5	hist	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	P	0	0			0.49	hist	no
Fair Share	fair share	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	K	2	1	0.5	nY	0.48	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	2	1	0.5	nY	0.48	hist	yes
Communism / Socialism	communism|socialism	1	K	0	0			0.48	hist	no
America First	america first	1	K	9	6	0.67	YYnYYYYnn	0.47	hist	no
Globalist / Globalism	globalism|globalist	1	P	0	0			0.47	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	KP	37	20	0.54	YnnYnYYYnn	0.46	hist	yes
New York	new york	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.46	hist	yes
Peace 10+ times	peace#10	10	P	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	no
Vladimir	vladimir	1	P	0	0			0.46	hist	no
Trafficking / Smuggling	smuggling|trafficking	1	K	0	0			0.45	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.44	hist	yes
Dead	dead	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	yes
Immigration / Migration	immigration|migration	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	yes
Maduro	maduro	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	yes
God 5+ times	god#5	5	P	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.42	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine 7+ times	russia|ukraine#7	7	P	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	yes
Sovereignty	sovereignty	1	P	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	yes
World War	world war	1	K	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.41	hist	no
Palestine	palestine	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	0.41	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	1	K	13	3	0.23	YnnYnnnnnn	0.4	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	12	3	0.25	nnnnYnnnnY	0.37	hist	yes