Will Donald Trump say “October 7th”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “October 7th” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (75%), most recently on Sep 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
October 7th
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…time. In two weeks, we will mark the third anniversary of the October 7th attack in Israel, where terrorists funded by Iran tortured, mutilated and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | October 7th |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 29, 2025 | October 7th | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 29, 2025 | October 7th | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | October 7th |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “October 7th”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “October 7th” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (75%), most recently on Sep 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “October 7th” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘October 7th’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/october-7th (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=october%207th · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP