Will Donald Trump say “Dead”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dead” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Dead
- Probability
- 47% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 3 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…over the place. So, less than two years ago, our country was dead and now we're the hottest country anywhere in the world. Hottest in…
…places and the parents would get a call, please, your son is dead. Your son was killed while watching and looking at the Washington Monument,…
…knows this. Steel. And we came we're we the steel industry is dead in this country. Three years ago, four years ago, dead. And now…
…tell you that. So, it's amazing. We've removed the names of 160,000 dead people from the list of food stamp recipients. These are people that…
…four years in the previous administration. Two years ago, our country was dead, and now we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. Before…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Dead”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dead” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Dead” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Dead’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/dead (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dead · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP