Will Donald Trump say “Palestine”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Palestine” at 1 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (7%), most recently on Sep 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 26¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Palestine
- Probability
- 32% · n=15
- Settled
- 1/15 (7%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Palestine |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Palestine | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Palestine |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Palestine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Palestine | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Palestine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Palestine”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Palestine” at 1 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (7%), most recently on Sep 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Palestine” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Palestine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/palestine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=palestine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP