Will Donald Trump say “Pardon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pardon” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (75%), most recently on Dec 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pardon
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…got to be kidding." No. They they showed me, "Sir, would you pardon so and so from Iowa?" Few of them from Iowa. I said,…
Sure, we have the power of pardon. If I see somebody that's unfairly treated, I have the power of pardon. And there are those that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pardon”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pardon” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (75%), most recently on Dec 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pardon” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pardon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pardon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pardon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP