Will Donald Trump say “Immigrant / Immigration”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Immigrant / Immigration” at 4 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 3, 2025 (21%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Immigrant / Immigration
- Probability
- 35% · n=19
- Settled
- 4/19 (21%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…people think it's a little controversial, I don't care -- it's an immigration problem. You had people that poured into France and they were also…
…have a Europe pretty soon if they keep going. And it's mostly immigrants, there are other. You know, JD wrote a great post on it…
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Immigration / Immigrant | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Immigrant / Immigration”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Immigrant / Immigration” at 4 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 3, 2025 (21%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Immigrant / Immigration” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Immigrant / Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/immigrant-or-immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=immigrant%20%2F%20immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP