Will Donald Trump say “F-35”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “F-35” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (44%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
F-35
- Probability
- 45% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | F-35 |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | F-35 | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | F-35 |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 16, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 25, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 13, 2025 | F-35 | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “F-35”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “F-35” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (44%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “F-35” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘F-35’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/f-35 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=f%2035 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP