Remarks transcript, Jun 10, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jun 10, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 35 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 34 of 35 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
35 words · 22 settled yes · our count agreed on 34 of 35- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 44%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 10 | ✓ | 75%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 54%n=264 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 46%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 41%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Markwayne / Mullin | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 27%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 41%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 39%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 1 | 6 | ✓ | 33%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New Jersey | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rebuilt the Military | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tom Homan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=390 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
328 passages · part 3 of 3Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Tell me.
Because as soon as this war is over—you know, I can say it now. Something you didn't know. Do you know we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil? Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran, until right now. We took out, the other night, 22 ships, late at night with no lights, because they don't have any radar because we blasted the crap out of it. We took out—that's why oil is $85 a barrel. I mean, you take a look.
Remember, when I did this, I said, "Look, the one bad thing will be"—we hit the best economy we've ever hit, and I said to my people—I had Scott. I had Howard. I had Pete. I had all of them. I had Todd in the room. I said, "The one thing we have to do now"—we had just hit the highest stock market in history, highest 401(k)s in history. Everything was going well. And I said: "I hate to do this to you guys, but Iran's going to have a nuclear weapon very soon. We have to go and attack."
So we hit them with the B–2 bombers, which took a lot of courage. It was totally successful. We buried it. Very hard to get. But—now we had to make the second move. And I said: "You know, the bad part is the stock market will go down by a lot, based on predictions of experts, by 25 percent." And it was worth it. To me, it was worth it not to have a nuclear weapon. And the other thing is that oil would go to $250 a barrel. It's at $85, and—which is pretty amazing.
And here's the key: We just hit, today, another stock market high: it's 74—in my short time here, 74 days, we hit stock market alltime historical highs. Nobody can believe it. The Dow. The Dow, the S&P.
S&P was at 7,000. They said: "In 4 years, maybe 5 years. It will never hit it during the term." It was too much. I hit it in my first year. I hit—on the Dow, it was 50,000 was an impossible number. They said, "5, 6 years out, you'd hit"—well, I hit it in my first year. And now I get everyone in the room and say: "Congratulations, but now I'm going to take it down a little bit, because we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
And they all agreed with me. Todd, you remember. They—everybody agreed. And we took a little journey down to Iran. We first stopped off at Venezuela, by the way. And we have paid for that war many, many times over. And we have great relationships with the people of Venezuela. We get along with them great. It was a great success. It was a 1-day war. It was really—it was really, to be exact, 48 minutes of fury, and it was over. And Venezuela is doing great. Relationships with the people are great. It's become a happy country, believe it or not. I mean, it's become a happy country. And we are—we're taking out millions of barrels of oil from Venezuela.
And then we went to Iran, and, essentially, we've done the same thing. It doesn't look as pretty, but it—we've—there's no navy. Hundred and fifty-nine ships at the bottom of the sea. There's no air force. All of their planes are blown up. Most of their drones are gone. Most of their drone-making ability is gone. Most of their missiles are gone. All of their leadership is gone, so they replaced it. All of that leadership is gone, so they replaced it. And that's the people we're dealing with now.
And I think they're going to want to make a deal, but we're going to find out.
Do you expect—do you expect inflation to come down between now and November?
Oh, when the war is over?
Yes.
It's coming down.
I know you can't predict the future——
It's going to come down like a rock. And, again, we're taking out millions—which I'm just announcing today for the first time—but we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Millions of barrels. Every night, we took out oil, but now I'm going to tell you, because they just figured it out. So now that they figured it out, I can tell you.
It was very hard for me. I wanted to say it so badly—[ laughter ]—but it was—I didn't want to ruin it. But it was very hard. But millions of barrels of oil has come out, and that's why it's at $85, $90 a barrel, instead of $250.
But we have the greatest military in the world, the toughest military in the world, the—just the best in every way. Nobody even close. There's no military that's even close. I rebuilt it during my first term. I'm using it now.
When this conflict is over—Todd said, "Please call it a conflict." Right? [ Laughter ] As opposed to the word "war." He didn't—he didn't like that word, "war." But it's sort of a conflict. It's a military operation.
When it's over, you will see oil drop to where it was before. We were getting gasoline—just before it started, I was in Iowa, and we passed gas stations: $1.85 a gallon. And we'll be back at those levels very soon.
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
You can show us signing the bill. They're the only ones that matter.
See, Biden wouldn't do this.
No, he wouldn't.
No, he'd need the machine.
That's the real deal right there.
Okay.
Beautiful.
Thank you very much, everybody.
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