Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 70%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 69%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 56%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 48%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Federal Reserve / Fed | Yes | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Newsom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kennedy | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| School / University | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CDC | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP