Will Donald Trump say “Disaster”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Disaster” at 10 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (34%), most recently on Dec 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=29, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Disaster
- Probability
- 40% · n=29
- Settled
- 10/29 (34%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…do well, it would have been Jeff. I would have had a disaster on my hands, right? That's what they told me. They said, "Well,…
…the most crazed people in the entire country. It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in…
…to be tremendously less. But these -- I mean, California is a disaster, Minnesota, Maine -- it's hard to believe. It's so bad it's like…
…that AI is going to kill us all, that robots are going to attack us, and that everything is going to be a total disaster.
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Disaster |  Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| May 12, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Disaster | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Disaster”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Disaster” at 10 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (34%), most recently on Dec 13, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Disaster” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=29). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Disaster’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/disaster (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=disaster · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP