Will Donald Trump say “Stupid Person”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid Person” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 10, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 98¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stupid Person
- Probability
- 54% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…These are corrupt politicians. Weak? Well, Gavin Newsom admits that he's a stupid person. He admits that he was a man who had poor results…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Stupid Person |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Stupid person | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Stupid person | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Stupid person | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Stupid person | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Stupid person | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stupid Person”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid Person” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 10, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stupid Person” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stupid Person’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stupid-person (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stupid%20person · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP