# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · next window_month, open until 2026-10-31 · 22 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-october-2026 · as_of 2026-10-25T23:22:03Z
# scope P named · n/y settled · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-23..2026-10-25 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-october-2026 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 7 of 31 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-25T23:04:23Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Slob	slob	3	3	1	YYY	8	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes		1
Who Are You With / Where Are You From	where are you from|who are you with	52	35	0.67	YYYnnYYYnY	8	1	0.64	hist	2	2	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	33	21	0.64	YYYnYnYYYY	8	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes		1
Through the Roof	through the roof	20	13	0.65	YYnYnYYnYY	8	1	0.63	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Shit	shit	7	6	0.86	YYnYYYY	8	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes		1
Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS	tds|trump derangement syndrome	60	38	0.63	nnYnYYYYnn	8	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes		1
Ass	ass	28	14	0.5	nYYYnYnnnn	8	1	0.6	hist	7	7	yes	1	
Dancing in the Street	dancing in the street	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.57	hist	0	0			
Stupid Person	stupid person	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	8	1	0.54	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Teleprompter	teleprompter	8	4	0.5	nYnYnYnY	8	2	0.54	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Weave	weave	6	2	0.33	nnnYnY	8	0	0.5	hist	0	0			
Front Row Joe	front row joe	3	3	1	YYY	8	3	0.49	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Refund	refund	4	2	0.5	nYnY	8	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes		1
Caravan	caravan	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes		1
Central Casting	central casting	15	5	0.33	nnnnYnnnYY	8	5	0.46	hist	7	7	yes	1	
Six Seven	six seven	84	23	0.27	nnnnnnnnYY	8	2	0.41	hist	6	10	yes	1	
Gay	gay	18	5	0.28	nnYnnnYnnY	8	1	0.39	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Illness	illness	0	0			8	0	0.5	prior	0	0			
Neurotic	neurotic	0	0			8	0	0.5	prior	0	0			
Caddie	caddie	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	yes		1
Newborn	newborn	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	yes		1
Shut Up	shut up	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	yes		1