Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 30, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Fed Chairman announcement on Friday?
Markets
22 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thank You 8+ times | No | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 57%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Job 7+ times | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Wife | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 50%n=165 from settlement history | – |
| Governor | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Harvard | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Christopher / Waller | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Few years ago | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Financial World | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kick in / Kicked in | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mistake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Outstanding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rick / Rieder | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Think about it | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Very Respected | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MIT | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 38%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Too late | No | 35%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=251 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-fed-chairman-announcement-on-friday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP