Donald Trump: Monthly window, Dec 31, 2026

By Dec 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
5 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 512 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (115 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

23 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 7

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Barack Hussein Obama Yes1616✓69%n=179 from settlement history–
Talafreako / Tala Freako Yes88✓55%n=2 from settlement history–
Crooked Joe Yes55✓66%n=5 from settlement history–
Too Late Yes33✓54%n=30 from settlement history–
Sleazebag Yes11✓64%n=6 from settlement history–
Pocahontas Yes11✓58%n=27 from settlement history–
Newscum Yes11✓47%n=78 from settlement history–
Whack Job / Wack Job Yes–0–68%n=4 from settlement history–
Low IQ Yes–0–59%n=14 from settlement history–
Crooked Hillary open11–65%n=9 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Crazy Bernie open11–45%n=5 from settlement history19¢ Kalshi
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus open–0–65%n=2 from settlement history61¢ Kalshi
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck open–0–64%n=6 from settlement history66¢ Kalshi
Piggy open–0–60%n=6 from settlement history51¢ Kalshi
Marjorie Traitor Greene open–0–57%n=8 from settlement history83¢ Kalshi
Crazy Nancy open–0––new new word, no probability yet24¢ Kalshi
Fake Tapper open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability18¢ Kalshi
Fat Slob open–0–53%n=5 from settlement history30¢ Kalshi
Biden Crime Family open–0–45%n=5 from settlement history11¢ Kalshi
Little Communist open–0–45%n=5 from settlement history14¢ Kalshi
Comrade Kamala open–0–45%n=16 from settlement history11¢ Kalshi
Rocket Man open–0–44%n=6 from settlement history11¢ Kalshi
Low Energy open–0–42%n=7 from settlement history24¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-27JAN01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP