Donald Trump: Rally, Dec 19, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Rocky Mount Rally?
Markets
22 words · 16 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Walz | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars | Yes | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial intelligence | Yes | 48%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ted / Cruz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ISIS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tom / Homan | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Coal / Clean Coal | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| War 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-rocky-mount-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP